Many things have changed since the inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States of America. There have been fewer tweets, less attacks on journalists and more focus on science. The suspicion of the US towards China, however, has stayed the same.
On the 4th of February, Joe Biden made his first foreign policy speech as president. He called China the USA’s “most serious competitor” and said that the US would “push back on China’s attacks on human rights, intellectual property and global governance”. The US is worried that while the last century may have been dominated by American culture and politics, this century might belong to China.
Meanwhile, China has spent the last number of months and years denying human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while simultaneously trying to build their strength and credbility as a global superpower.
Now Taiwan has emerged as another challenge for China.
China and Taiwan have had separate governments since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, although Taiwan has technically remained part of China. Taiwan’s government has strong commercial and informal ties with many countries.
In 1979 the United States formed diplomatic relations with Beijing and eventually passed the Taiwan Relations Act which allowed for “arms sales to Taiwan for self-defence” and, crucially, does not rule out the possibility of the United States defending Taiwan from a Chinese attack. Since this act, the US has sold more than $25 billion worth of arms to Taiwan.
From the beginning of the 21st century, the Taiwan independence movement has grown, and the country has elected numerous presidents who are outspokenly in favour of breaking from China.
Taiwan’s location in the South China Sea is extremely important strategically for Chinese military and trade. The islands of Taiwan form a gateway from mainland China to the Philippines that sees boats pass from South Korea, Japan and eastern China, including Shanghai, to the west.
Taiwan is important to the US too. Taiwan is more liberal than China, has a democratically elected government and has a strong economy. This means that a US partnership with Taiwan is not only valuable strategically, but also economically and politically.
In January of this year, just days before Biden’s inaugural foreign policy speech, China threatened that Taiwanese calls for independence would “mean war”. This escalation in rhetoric has concerned the US.
In early March a former US National Security Advisor said that Taiwan is “the most significant flashpoint now that could lead to large-scale war”. Then, during a Senate Armed Services Committee meeting, the Head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said that Chinese aggression towards Taiwan will happen “in the next six years”. After that, John Aquilino, the US Pacific Fleet Commander, said that Chinese aggression towards Taiwan is “closer than we think”.
China and the US are positioned to be the two global heavyweights vying for power in the 21st century. How both countries manage calls for Taiwanese independence will be crucial in how it plays out.
— Jonathan (@lonnyjewis)